The Trump Effect is having a profound, defining impact on geopolitics and the existing world order. Both seem to be in an agitated state of flux. His policies, in both the geopolitical and geoeconomic dimensions, come across as an abrasive concoction of realpolitik and blatant coercive diplomacy. This is evident from his handling of affairs with Panama, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Gaza, Ukraine, Europe and even China. To that end, he has become extremely unpredictable, assertive and demanding in his dealings with allies, friends and foes alike. He has also initiated a universal trade war based essentially on reciprocal tariffs. He is convinced that the world at large has been taking unfair advantage of US’ largesse and benevolence for a very long time and he intends to bring these lopsided relationships onto a fairer and more balanced keel. He seems intent to redefine, recraft, recast and reimpose US’ international and trade policies and relationships, primarily to its own enduring advantage and benefit. To that end, it is becoming clearer by the day, that geoeconomics rather than geopolitics and/or geostrategy will henceforth define and be the leitmotif of US’ policies in its international and trade relationships.

This stark paradigm shift in US’ policies has had serious implications worldwide, especially in Gaza. While President Trump remains more than steadfast in his support of Israel, despite the latter’s ruthless, universally condemned genocide there, he has sprung a surprise on all by declaring that he wants to “own” Gaza, evict all its inhabitants and then turn it into a profitable waterfront riviera for the rich and affluent. This is a real estate developer’s brusque approach/solution to a long festering human issue rather than that of a considerate, visionary world leader. It is bound to regenerate and intensify human misery and pain, resistance, conflict and potentially war, all the more. Quite unsurprisingly, this proposal has found no takers in the world except Israel.

Ukraine’s very recent history shows that betrayal is ominously becoming the new normal between it and its allies. Crucially, this not the first time that the US has been involved in a betrayal of Ukraine. Under the Budapest Agreement 1994, between Ukraine, US, UK and Russia, the former’s security was guaranteed by the other three signatories, on condition that it gave up all the nuclear warheads and delivery systems that it had inherited from the erstwhile USSR. It naively agreed to those “assurances”. Denuded of its formidable strategic assets, it was left at the mercy and benevolence of these very powers - and as things stand today, must be regretting and repenting its monumental, suicidal folly, woefully! Mr Gorbachev, the then Russian President, had agreed to the re-unification of Germany on the condition and guarantees by the US and UK that NATO would not expand eastwards, “not even by an inch”. However, later the US and UK went back on their word and brought East European and Scandinavian states into NATO’s fold, raising its membership to 32 states. Simultaneously, NATO tried to enrol Ukraine as well, despite Russian warnings to the contrary. That instigated the current Russia-Ukraine war, primarily because Russia was not ready to accept NATO, replete in all its military power and might, right on its borders. The inherent implication had existential threats for Russia. Article 5 of the NATO Charter “collective defence” - states that “an attack on one Ally would be considered an attack on all Allies”. That would mean that any argument between Russia and Ukraine would immediately involve the whole of NATO and create the strategic environment for a major conflagration between the world’s most formidable military-nuclear-missile powers on its soil. These deep manoeuvres by the US-led West compelled Russia to enhance its perimeter of security by moving into Crimea in 2014. This gave it unrestricted access to Black Sea ports and the Sea Lines of Communication through the Mediterranean Sea. Thereafter, in September 2022, amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, it unilaterally declared the annexation of four Ukrainian oblasts, (administrative divisions) - Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. This created a viable buffer zone for it against aggression from the West/within Ukraine.

The Biden Administration had been quite unwavering in its multidimensional support of Ukraine. However, the Trump Administration has suddenly become adamant upon cutting US losses, suing for peace with the Russians and threatening to walk away from all commitments made by the Biden Administration. Unsurprisingly though, President Trump is simultaneously resetting the US-Ukraine relationship by conditioning continued US support to it meeting certain crucial, unrelenting, uncompromisable demands. He wants a 50% share in all of Ukraine’s rare earth metals, minerals, oil and gas deposits for the US. This reeks of blatant coercion and unabated, ruthless exploitation! The Ukrainians are truly flabbergasted by this strange, unjust quid pro quo demanded by President Trump. With Russia already occupying 20% of its territory and ingressing further, Ukraine has precious little bargaining space left with the US. It can neither willingly meet this audacious and outrageous US demand nor can it practically fend off Russia on its own or even with Europe’s support. Betrayal and helplessness stare Ukraine in the face; yet again at an agonizingly, humiliating national cost! The Ukrainians were literally duped into this war and are now being asked to pay an exorbitant price to either continue it or come to a mortifying, adverse agreement with Russia. President Zelensky has apparently succumbed to US coercion. He however, continues to pitch, quite unsuccessfully though, for ironclad security guarantees and membership of NATO. Neither are likely to be forthcoming. Even Europe is finding it hard to comprehend and deal with this baffling geopolitical paradox!

What does the geopolitical crystal ball then portend?

(To be continued)

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.