The evolving geostrategic and geoeconomic environments make it imperative for Pakistan to secure its vital national interests. It must consider a multidimensional approach at the domestic, sub-regional, regional and extra-regional levels to not only contain terrorism but also create a favourable environment for the colossal mining initiative that it has undertaken. To that end, a Strategy of Concentric Circles, centred upon Afghanistan, may be considered. (Afghan Campaign and the Waning US, by this scribe, The Nation, 07 October 2012). The innermost circle could cover the APR. The Afghan Taliban could be engaged, peace be sought, and they be counselled to stop the cross-border terrorist attacks into Pakistan. Return of refugees, friction-free bilateral and international trade through Pakistani ports could be used as incentives. The second concentric circle could cover the sub-regional level and include all immediate neighbours of Afghanistan. Efforts could be made to stop all cross-border movements of terrorists, weapons, equipment, funds, etc. in the sub-region. The third concentric circle could include Russia, China, India, etc. They could help develop Afghanistan economically and wean it away from destroying itself and the region. Trans-regional trade corridors, like the BRI-CPEC, TAPI, CASA, etc. through Afghanistan could boost all regional economies. The fourth concentric circle could cover the GMER, the EU, UK, the OIC, Japan, Australia, the US, etc. They could invest in the infrastructure and minerals of the SCAR-APR Complex to create an economic stake in regional peace. This could eventually become a win-win international effort to free the region and the world of the scourge of terrorism!

Pakistan is currently hosting a Mineral Investment Forum. This is a vital initiative of the government and could benefit Pakistan’s economy manifold. In particular, it could kick-start Balochistan’s socio-economic development and allay many of its people’s long-held grievances. Pakistan must, however, ensure that the entire cycle from mining, processing, refining, value-added manufacturing and exporting is done within Pakistan, under its complete oversight. Special industrial and export promotion zones must be created in the Mekran Coast’s hinterland, to that end. Crucially, Pakistan must always retain sole, independent, absolute and total control over its priceless rare earth metals/critical minerals. This must be a non-negotiable condition for any mining licences proffered to foreigners. It must never feel compelled to allow any undue concessions to any foreign investors on this account. Pakistan must assert a non-negotiable and decisive control and ownership over the entire cycle of mining, processing, refining, manufacturing and exporting of all rare earth metals/critical minerals. This must be agreed upon prior to the start of any explorations! Pakistan must also ensure that it does not get caught in any major power rivalry over rare earth metals/critical minerals. However, a serious issue with geostrategic connotations arises. Will the cross-border terrorist attacks continue even when certain powers are involved in exploring the minerals? Or will “they” prevail upon Afghanistan (and others?) to put a stop to these attacks? Either way, it would be extremely revealing and might even give a much sought-after perspective to the origins and objectives of Afghanistan-based terrorism!

As a non-negotiable rider clause, however, local Baloch, men and women alike, must be given preference and the requisite vocational training to be fruitfully employed in these endeavours – right through each stage of the cycle of production. The Baloch must have the first right of refusal before people from other areas can be accommodated. The wealth generated from these minerals and trade thereof must foremost benefit Balochistan and its people, who must be directly involved in forging a viable, mutually beneficial agreement to that end. The multinationals that invest in these minerals must also commit to their Corporate Social Responsibilities and contribute heavily to creating health, educational, technological, vocational, professional, communication, water, infrastructural, etc. facilities for the locals and Balochistan as a whole. This is very doable and Pakistan must not lose this precious albeit fleeting opportunity to win over the Baloch once again.

The state, therefore, must adopt a very nuanced approach to Balochistan. It must be at least two-pronged – ruthlessly kinetic against the terrorists and miscreants, and absolutely compassionate towards the people of Balochistan – and its emerging leadership! The state must confront the terrorists and miscreants who are causing all this mayhem. It must use all its intelligence and kinetic resources to not only pre-empt terrorist attacks but to also counter them effectively. Intelligence-based kinetic operations must target hard-core terrorists, their facilitators, supporters and sleeper cells. The Afghan Taliban must first be engaged and incentivised to put a stop to these cross-border attacks and movements. Failing which, Pakistan ought to have no compunction in using all coercive measures, including trade restrictions, cross-border surgical strikes, etc. to secure its vital national interests!

As far as the people of Balochistan are concerned, they need to be treated with the justice and compassion they deserve as their right. As a first step, they must be engaged in an unconditional dialogue. Their long-standing issues of socio-economic deprivation must be acknowledged and dealt with immediately. Political awareness and emancipation are taking place naturally in Balochistan. The new political dispensations must be brought into the national mainstream and given the space and recognition they yearn for. Free, fair and all-inclusive elections could bring in a truly representative government, sensitive and responsive to the aspirations of the people of Balochistan. It will inspire confidence and trust. Pakistan must win over the people of Balochistan and their conviction and belief in the state. Crucially, the combined, desired end-state of a nuanced approach to Balochistan and the potentially phenomenal mining endeavour underway ought to be a peaceful, happy, developed, affluent, healthy, and educated Balochistan as an integral, essential part of a prosperous Pakistan!

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.