In case of a stalemate between Israel and Iran, the current status quo and the regional strategic balance will prevail. The war could continue endlessly, aimlessly. If, on the other hand, the US-Israel combine emerges victorious, subdues Iran, scuttles its nuclear programme and enforces a regime change, then the balance of power and the geopolitical framework of the region will be turned on its head. The new, “favourably inclined” Iranian regime would be required to give up Iran’s nuclear ambitions, fully eradicate its nuclear programme, sign the Abraham Accords, accept Israel as the hegemon and centre of power in the GMER, and generally pursue US-Israel interests in the region. It might get some sanctions relief thereafter.

At the geopolitical level then, Israel will appear as the most dominant power, the sole NWS, overwhelming hegemon and net security provider of the region. Its pre-eminence will force the Gulf Arabs to readily sign the Abraham Accords, recognise it, and accept it as the centre of power in the region. All its immediate threats would be deemed to have been neutralised, and the GMER will have acquired an entirely different avatar! At the geostrategic level, Israel will emerge as the most dominant military-nuclear-missile power in the region. Its freedom of action within the region will encourage it to pursue its ambitions of a Greater Israel with renewed vigour and determination. Its presence on the Persian Gulf will enhance its potential to project power in the South-Central Asian Region (SCAR) and beyond. Israel could become the fourth nuclear power, in addition to China, India, and Pakistan, in the region at large. This could lead to inevitable clashes of vital national interests, including those of strategic reach. Nuclear US will always loom ominously in the background, while China will act to preserve its national interests in the region. Potential alignments of US-Israel-India and China-Pakistan could give rise to severe polarisation and instability within the region!

The strategic environment for Armageddon to creep further east of Iran would have thus been created. A subdued, neutralised Iran would be a strategic vulnerability for Pakistan. It could potentially become a conduit for operations against its nuclear-missile programmes. Pakistan could eventually end up with hostile neighbours all around — India in the East, Afghanistan in the North-West, and a “new” Iran in the West. A sponsored twin-triple threat from the East and the North- West–West is not entirely unrealistic! It would create existential threats for Pakistan aimed at neutralising its militarynuclear- missile prowess and defusing its full spectrum deterrence capacities. A fragile, destabilised inner front — a strategic vulnerability — would compound Pakistan’s woes.

Pakistan, however, is a formidable military- nuclear-missile power and cannot be bludgeoned into submission by mere rhetoric or even military aggression. It is an entirely different kettle of fish than the ones tackled by hostile forces till now. It can more than look after its vital national interests in a brawl/slugfest, as has been demonstrated against India a number of times. Its nuclear programme is a very well-defined, established, and secured one. It is not vulnerable to any subterfuge, terrorist attacks, external aggression, direct or indirect threats, etc. (Securing Pakistan’s Nukes, by this scribe, The Nation, 05 & 08 November 2022). A strong government will always secure the nation’s vital national interests. Pakistan’s full spectrum deterrence will therefore need to be reinforced and reiterated. Its intent and capability to defend its territorial integrity, sovereignty, independence, freedom of choice and action will not only have to be restated and reaffirmed but also demonstrated in no uncertain terms. The government’s and the nation’s political and military will to that end will need to be exhibited explicitly, again.

Pakistan’s threat perceptions must not be restricted to India alone and must now include its western–northwestern flanks as well. It must therefore move NOW to cater for the worstcase scenario — a double envelopment from the East and the West–North-West, further vitiated by a destabilised, volatile inner front and a near-insolvent economy. To that end, Pakistan will now need to increase its strategic reach on the North-West and Western fronts and also militarise the Mekran Coast in a well thought out, well-considered, and well-planned manner. This might entail creating air, naval-submarine, and missile bases; air defence positions; C4ISR capabilities; radar and communication stations; satellite coverage; intelligencegathering posts, etc., acquiring intrusive and controlling oversight on all Sea Lines of Communication to and from the Persian Gulf and, if need be, the Indian Ocean as well. Its air, maritime, and land spaces are uninfringeable. Its strategic reach — aircraft, missiles, drones, naval-submarine ranges, etc. — must be compatible with and encompass its potential threats. Period.

Furthermore, it is now becoming inevitable that Pakistan and China formalise a strong, binding defence and security pact with an inviolable condition that an attack on one would be considered an attack on both. This must naturally lead to interoperability and joint operations, if required. It will usher in peace and stability in the region. It would act as a massive deterrent to all would-be aggressors from the East and West, as well as the expansionist designs of some hostile regional–extra-regional players.

Armageddon is now threatening Pakistan more than it did at any time in the past. Pakistan must secure itself accordingly. It must also prepare to tackle it “pre-emptively, as a defensive measure” as well — as has been recently demonstrated against Iran. The precedent has been created and exists. No power may be allowed to encroach upon its air, maritime, or land spaces or feel emboldened enough to threaten its full spectrum deterrent capacities and capabilities. Period. Well planned and well prepared is half the battle won!

Imran Malik

The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail. com and tweets @K846Im.