Post-Pahalgam and the India–Pakistan clash, the geopolitical and geostrategic spectrums and imperatives of the region stand irrevocably altered, much to India’s detriment. The regional, extra-regional and world views of the region too have undergone a massive paradigm shift. India might still be the largest country in the South Asian Region (SAR), however a new, competing centre of power has now emerged and been recognised as such – Pakistan! The balance of power has shifted to a more even keel, irrevocably. The strategic balance and calculus have been recalibrated. This has redefined the geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics of the region – even while disregarding the phenomenal China Factor. Severe ramifications for alliances, strategic partnerships, alignments, international relations, etc., have thus ensued, which must now transform and/or readjust to remain relevant to the new emerging geopolitical and geostrategic realities in the SAR.

At the domestic Indian level, PM Modi and his supremacist, majoritarian BJP’s loss of face is endemic. Their political graph has sunk steeply. They were badly exposed in the Balakot clash with Pakistan in February 2019. Now questions are being raised on the ostensible geopolitical and military aims, costs and benefits of this contrived geostrategic environment and the embarrassing results of the ensuing clash in May 2025. This entire sorry episode is being viewed as a horrendous strategic faux pas by the Modi Government. The Indian military’s (especially the Indian Air Force’s) professional reputation and morale have plummeted. The hysterical Indian media, somewhat muted since, has had its credibility blown to smithereens. No one trusts its word now. PM Modi’s party is now likely to suffer the consequences in domestic politics and elections!

At the bilateral–regional level too, India’s bluff has been called. Its government, its diplomacy and military capacities and capabilities have come up second best in this clash and the whole world is a witness to it. In his address to the nation PM Modi alluded to the ceasefire as an “operational pause” and that hostilities would resume at a time and a place of India’s choosing. He further stated that henceforth, “terrorist attacks” – false flag operations in actual fact – would be responded to with military attacks on their sponsors, supporters and their infrastructure. He called it the “new normal” in the region. PM Modi perhaps forgot that Pakistan had already laid down the paradigms of the “established and prevalent new normal” in the region during Operation Swift Retort in February 2019 and reconfirmed it through Operation Bunyanun Marsoos in May 2025. It implies that any arrogant, aggressive action against Pakistan, on any contrived pretext whatsoever, howsoever and by whomsoever, will be responded to promptly, aggressively, decisively and without fail. It is in Pakistan’s DNA not to brook any overbearing, haughty aggression against it. Period. Operation Bunyanun Marsoos has severely curtailed India’s sphere of influence, strategic reach and malicious freedom of action in the SAR. Its pretensions as the hegemon, net security provider in the larger region have been fully exposed as mere vacuous, ambitious rants. Pakistan is being recognised as the other centre of power in the SAR by all South Asian nations and even beyond. The geopolitical and geostrategic spectrums of the region thus stand immutably redefined. Pakistan’s stock and stature have risen prodigiously in the Greater Middle East and the South-Central Asian Regions. There too, it is being viewed as the alternate centre of power in the SAR!

At the geopolitical level, PM Modi’s strategic faux pas has engendered far-reaching ramifications. One, much to India’s consternation, the Kashmir dispute has been internationalised, bringing the relevant UNSC Resolutions and the political will of the Kashmiris into contention. Two, President Trump, who brokered the ceasefire, has repeatedly offered to mediate and help resolve the critical issue of Kashmir. India’s long-held position on Kashmir being a “bilateral issue” thus stands nullified. In fact, with China on the Ladakh LAC, it is now essentially a trilateral issue! Three, crucially, the US has “re-hyphenated and equated” India and Pakistan once again – a fallback to the policies of President Clinton’s era and earlier. Four, India’s massive strategic insanity has actualised one of its foremost fears and quashed one of its foreign policy’s cardinal objectives – to forestall an alliance, a robust strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. PM Modi’s short-sighted and ill-thought-out policies have achieved precisely just that. They have reiterated, reinforced and reinvigorated the already strong, multidimensional Sino–Pakistan strategic partnership. India now faces a potential two–three front war scenario! Five, Operation Bunyanun Marsoos’ success has seriously circumscribed India’s sphere of influence and effective strategic reach in the immediate region. Six, PM Modi’s ill-founded, hegemonic policies have floundered miserably at the regional level, adversely affecting India’s credibility as a regional power in the international arena. Seven, India is literally isolated in the SAR and beyond, with only Israel and the Taliban-led Afghanistan coming out explicitly in its support. The US-led West, which India expected to support it, à la Israel, unconditionally, baulked! Eight, the US might have expected India, a strategic ally, to create the desired environment which facilitates the achievement of its geopolitical and geostrategic aims and objectives in the larger Asia–Pacific Region (APR), especially vis-à-vis China and Iran. India was ostensibly being rearmed, re-equipped, reinforced, prepared and propped up for that prime purpose. India, however, remains fixated upon Pakistan. That shows a clear divergence of national interests and strategic objectives between the two ostensible strategic allies. Is India’s illusive strategic autonomy to blame for this gaffe? The paradigms of this US policy/strategic alliance (QUAD?) might now need a serious review, recalibration and revision!

Pakistan has emerged as an ostensible counterweight to India. A new, reoriented, realigned SAR beckons!

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.