The volatility associated with the water crisis cannot be understood in isolation from national and international security. States, throughout history, have been known to be notoriously jealous and protective over their control and use of natural resources.
As water scarcity increases, the risk of acute conflict over transboundary watercourses also rises. There have been claims, made by experts, that the geopolitical environment is poised for “water wars”. Moreover, violent conflict over water and its resources, although sparingly, has been experienced by the global community in the past.
Around the world, there are plenty of examples where tensions are high. For instance, since 2007, diverging interests between upstream and downstream countries have brought negotiations pertaining to the Nile River Basin to a standstill, pitting Egypt (and to a lesser extent, Sudan) against upstream countries, especially Ethiopia. Similarly, Afghanistan has been making efforts to harness the waters of the Helmand River, in an attempt to begin post-conflict reconstruction. The Iranian government perceives Afghanistan’s activities as threats to water security. Similarly, the conflict over the Indus Waters Basin, threatens to destabilise the South Asian region.
According to UN Water, “Transboundary waters account for 60 percent of the world’s freshwater flows. 153 countries have territory within at least one of the 286 transboundary river and lake basins and 592 transboundary aquifer systems.” At the same time, only 32 countries have operational arrangements and institutional mechanisms on the sharing of these international waters.
According to the United Nations, both Pakistan and India are facing acute water stress. Water dynamics between Pakistan and India need to be seen from a security lens. The matter at hand is that perceptions of the Treaty fluctuate in both countries according to the overall bilateral relations between the countries. As a result, bilateral relations on other levels impact the water relationship between Pakistan and India.
The fact that the military establishments of both countries are active stakeholders in the water crisis further radicalises the issue. In the face of unpredictable decision making on both sides of the border, both countries have politicised water in an attempt to fulfill their hydrological needs.
Moreover, the politics surrounding Kashmir has also had a significant impact on the water relations between Pakistan and India. Since 2019, India has fast tracked the building of dams on the Chenab, Jhelum and Ravi rivers. It is hypothesised that in the long run, India plans to turn the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir region into an energy exporter, while using hydropower to generate employment in the area. Such projects are in line with India’s broader plan to fully integrate Kashmir into the region.
Following the 2016 Uri terrorist attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed that “blood and water can’t flow together”, and temporarily suspended the Indus Commission while setting up a high-level task force to evaluate the treaty. Pakistan replied to this threat by stating that any attempt by India to tamper with the flow of water would be perceived as an act of war. This threat by India was repeated in 2019, following a terrorist incident in Indian occupied Kashmir.
In light of the mounting security threats associated with water sharing and scarcity, it is essential that mechanisms are in place to enhance cooperation among riparian states. One crucial method of improving cooperation between the two countries is for third parties to play a more active role in the Indus Waters dynamic. Intervention by third parties is an efficient and effective tool for dispute resolution.
Water scarcity and the threat it poses to international peace has brought the issue of cooperation among riparian countries to the attention of all national and international stakeholders, such as the United Nations and the World Bank. Hence, the threat to peace has forced third parties to become involved in and play a more active role in solving conflicts associated with transboundary watercourses.
With regards to the Indus Waters Treaty, the World Bank plays a key role in the dispute resolution process under the Treaty. However, it is time that the World Bank plays a more active role in ensuring water cooperation between the two countries, especially in light of the increasing water scarcity in the South Asian region.
As the issue of water scarcity becomes an increasingly global concern, riparian countries are tilting towards having institutional mechanisms in place for effective and swift resolution of disputes.
Research has established that a precedent of cooperation between stakeholders, through the workings of institutional mechanisms such as treaties and inter-governmental bodies can reduce the risk of conflict over watercourses. It has been proven that once institutional capacity is created and mechanisms put in place, cooperation over shared waters continues in a streamlined fashion even in times of adversarial relations between riparian countries.
Enhancing institutional capacity, through the formation of bilateral and multilateral treaties and the creation of river basin commissions and organisations has become a favoured approach in the management of transboundary watercourses. The same can be seen in the case of the Indus, where the Commission is charged with serving “as the regular channel of communication on all matters relating to the implementation of the Treaty.” Historically, the ability of both Commissioners to communicate independently, irrespective of the political situation, has been seen as one of the main reasons for the success of the Treaty. However, in recent times, the workings of the Commission have been overshadowed by political considerations.
With regards to the Indus River Basin, water demand, water availability and aging water infrastructure are on a collision course, which will be made worse by uncertainties associated with climate change. In light of this it is essential that cooperation between Pakistan and India improves for the stability of the entire region.