Karzai's bulky baggage

I M Mohsin The flare up of anti-Karzai campaign by the world media immediately before the last presidential election appears to be dying down. Making the best of bad bargain tends to trump moral sensitivities of the US and her partners. Karzai's acceptance, despite all the glitches, may have also been prompted by the following considerations. First, he managed to 'win' in a country where the people, generally, though keen on fighting for their rights yet they find it hard to come together at the political level. Second, he is a former UNOCAL-man who can be depended upon while any new leader could end up as a gamble. Third, that he is a Pashtun, who would have considerable leverage even now among his community if he followed the traditional tactics in seeking a viable settlement No wonder Secretary Robert Gates called the Taliban as part of the "political fabric" in Islamabad while General Stanley McChrystal told The Financial Times: "There's been enough of fighting." Besides, he urged the Afghans to "...focus on the future and not the past." Karzai himself feels that he and his election were not as bad as has been projected in a recent interview with John Simpson, the veteran BBC journalist. Karzai emphasised: "Unfortunately, our election was very seriously mistreated by our western allies...." Claiming that peace in the area must be won at any cost, he outlined his programme for the realisation of his stated-objective by a change of strategy. The major thrust of his plan is to win over the Taliban through the extensive use of silver bullets. He intends to provide liberal financial support to those who opt for peace as against the war. As the war simmers on with rising costs for the US, the American public is getting upset about the reverses suffered by their forces. Moreover, the economic crunch in the US is also demoralising them. Surveys/polls indicate that more of the citizens do not like or support the expansion of the US forces in Afghanistan. While this bloody drama goes on, the Afghans suffer much more as is indicated by various social indicators. As insecurity rules the roost, which is badly aggravated by the corrupt governance offered by the warlords, terrible unemployment, lack of normal life and awful misery has become the usual lot of the locals. Many Afghans are driven to work for the Taliban just to survive. Karzai wants to launch huge infrastructure programmes whereby he can wean away young persons from the other party. He has been continuously hammering this likely breakthrough as the way to cross the Rubicon in the war. Being conscious of his own image due to the inglorious mismanagement of his country, he told the BBC: "Yes, my presidency is weak in regard to the means of power, which means money, which means equipment, which means manpower, which means capacity." Playing the acolyte, he added: "We trust them because we are in a relationship together." Now the posturing from the mentors is for a patch-up, hence Karzai is singing this tune overtly. A conference recently was held in Istanbul to fine-tune Kabul heal-up. The UN believes that the reconstruction programme launched after 2002 fell through because of corruption in the Afghan government and the US contractors. This is now widely believed to be true. As the US believes in outsourcing lesser jobs to private contractors, the standards of integrity get compromised. In fact, there are many reports which suggest that a lot of public money is swindled in these transactions. Recently, there was a reliable report disclosing that a certain security contractor was paying regularly to the Taliban for the safe passage of supplies meant for the troops. No wonder, the Taliban are able to 'hire' young men for jihad. Likewise, they are able to make considerable amounts of money by providing dependable security to the opium/drug trade. There also reports on US websites that mid-level US military personnel are, at times, making huge quick bucks on this score. In this scenario, the ground realities in Afghanistan seem to distinctly favour the Taliban. They have announced that from spring onwards, there would be an increased number of attacks on the 'occupation' forces. Considering the increasing losses suffered by the US troops lately, after the adoption of the McChrystal Plan for reinforcement of troops, the threat must be taken seriously by the ISAF. The ease with which the Presidential Palace in Kabul was attacked by the Taliban last week is an eye-opener for all concerned. President Barack Obama, as a statesman, appears to know where the shoe pinches in this war. His strategy unveiled before the cadets at West Point highlighted a likely settlement whereby the US troops can start flying back home next year. However, there are things which neither Obama nor Karzai can apparently control. First, is the corruption which is haunting the state. A recent report affirms that the Afghans have to pay $2.5 billion under this heading to various agencies to try to survive. Second, while efforts are being planned for reaching out to the Afghans who join the Taliban to earn a living, nothing much is mentioned about those who are fighting for the Taliban to avenge some dear or near ones killed by the indiscriminate bombing of 'targets'. The US must understand that this segment of fighters would be harder to appease. Like other powers who got entangled with AfPak, due to the geopolitical paradigm or otherwise, the US cannot conquer this area. Secretary Gates on his recent visit bemoaned the mistake made by his country in the 1990 when it abandoned its 'partners' against the Soviets; being flush with the excitement of becoming the 'only superpower'. He assured the people of Pakistan, like Hillary Clinton did on an earlier visit, that the US would stick around this time in a friendly and helpful role. The game is now swinging towards diplomacy, despite the faade of expansion of the US troops. Both the sides are trying various tactics to get their pound of flesh. While the US is the superpower, the other party has stood by their history/tradition. Peace and justice must team up. USA's focus on India and China notwithstanding, only Pakistan can help the US out; more so if it has transparent governance. The writer is a former secretary interior.

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