The United States, alongside its allied countries, is actively pursuing a comprehensive strategy aimed at encircling China in the Indo-Pacific region. This strategy involves strengthening military partnerships, establishing forward military bases, conducting joint exercises, and patrols near China’s maritime periphery. Additionally, the US is forging security alliances and partnerships with regional countries, providing military assistance, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to curb China’s assertive behavior. Through this multifaceted approach, the US and its allies seek to counterbalance China’s growing military and economic power.
During the George W. Bush administration, the concept of encirclement was initially introduced when National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice proposed the formation of an alliance in Asia to counterbalance China’s power and strengthen the United States’ influence. However, this plan took a backseat as the focus shifted towards the “war on terror” and the allocation of military resources to the Middle East. The containment strategy resurfaced under the Obama administration with its “pivot to Asia” approach. This involved increasing military cooperation with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Australia, mediating diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea, establishing military installations in the Philippines, restoring diplomatic ties with Myanmar, expanding naval presence in Singapore, and hosting a summit in 2016 with leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
The Trump administration significantly intensified the pursuit of the military encirclement strategy. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo revitalized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), an alliance between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia, often referred to as the “Asian NATO.” This alliance conducted joint military exercises and collaborated on strategies to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The Trump administration also strengthened diplomatic relations with Taiwan and enhanced military ties with Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, there was an increase in U.S. military presence and operations in the South China Sea.
The encirclement strategy has been further intensified by the Biden administration. This administration was responsible for establishing AUKUS, an alliance involving the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, as well as JAPHUS, a trilateral alliance between the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines, both of which are aimed at countering China. Additionally, in December 2021, President Biden signed the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act, a defense bill worth $768 billion, with a specific emphasis on containing China. The majority of this funding will be directed towards acquiring ships and aircraft to support the U.S. military presence in the South China Sea and implementing programs to strengthen military relationships in the Indo-Pacific region. The bill also designates $7.1 billion to enhance the current posture, capabilities, and activities of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific area.
The series of developments well depicts the strategy of the United States and the west to encircle Beijing. It includes, Japan’s Military Build-up, NATO’s pivot to Asia, arm sales to Taiwan, revival of the US-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (ECDA) and Modi’s Visit and India’s so-called economic miracle.
Japan’s recent decision to increase its defense budget and bolster its military capabilities marks a significant development in the Asia-Pacific region, as highlighted in my previous column titled ‘Japan’s military build-up.’ With a defense spending increase of around 43 trillion yen ($314 billion) from fiscal year 2023 to 2027, Japan’s defense budget will become the world’s third-largest, after the US and China. This substantial investment signifies Japan’s intent to counter and encircle China militarily. The defense strategy includes the acquisition of standoff missiles for counterforce strikes and the development of pre-emptive counterstrike capabilities, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US and the development of hypersonic weapons. By enhancing its defense capabilities, Japan aims to strengthen its position in the face of China’s rapid military rise and to actively contribute to US geopolitical game.
NATO’s expansion of its presence in the Asia-Pacific region, as highlighted in my previous column titled ‘NATO pivots to Asia,’ underscores its strategic shift towards containing and encircling China militarily. This includes the establishment of a liaison office in Tokyo, which will serve as NATO’s first office of this nature in Asia. The primary objective of this move is to facilitate regular consultations between NATO, Japan, and key regional partners like South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. By recognizing the emerging challenges posed by China, in addition to its traditional focus on Russia, NATO aims to enhance military cooperation and coordination with these nations. The opening of the liaison office and the forthcoming Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP) between NATO and Japan signal a collective commitment to counter China’s increasing influence and prevent it from emerging as a formidable competitor to Western powers. However, these developments have sparked criticism from Beijing, underscoring the escalating tensions between NATO and China and the potential for a volatile geopolitical landscape with far-reaching implications.
In another recent development, the United States government has announced its approval of arms sales to Taiwan, amounting to a substantial total value of US$440 million. This endorsement includes a diverse range of ammunition and spare parts specifically designated for military wheeled vehicles and weapons. The first package, valued at US$332.2 million, consists of various items such as 30mm High Explosive Incendiary-Tracer rounds, 30mm multi-purpose rounds, 30mm training rounds, and associated equipment. Additionally, a second package totaling US$108 million encompasses spare and repair parts essential for military wheeled vehicles, weapons, and other crucial support elements. It is important to mention that this approval follows the US government’s previous endorsement of $1.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in 2022, which China perceives as a breach of the One China policy, further contributing to tensions in the region.
One of the significant developments in the Asia-Pacific region is the signing of the “Washington Declaration” between the United States and South Korea. This agreement marks the deployment of US strategic assets and nuclear-armed submarines around the Korean Peninsula, aiming to enhance deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear threats. While the primary focus is on North Korea, the deployment of US nuclear weapons in South Korea also serves as a deterrent against China in the region. The declaration emphasizes the need for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific, further highlighting South Korea’s growing involvement in the United States’ efforts to counter China’s influence. This move signifies an increasing alignment between South Korea and the US in the ongoing geopolitical rivalry with China, contributing to a changing dynamic in the Asia-Pacific region.
In February 2023, the Philippines and the United States successfully revived their Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (ECDA) after facing legal and political challenges that had cast doubt on its full implementation since its signing in 2014. Under the reestablished ECDA, the United States has gained access to a total of nine Philippine military bases, including four additional bases that were identified in April 2023. These bases hold significant strategic value, given their proximity to Taiwan and the South China Sea, making them potential assets for military contingencies in the region. The expanded access to these bases aligns with the broader Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States, which aims to disperse its forces more widely across the region as part of its efforts to maintain stability and counterbalance China’s growing influence. This development also highlights the United States’ intent to strengthen its presence in the region and encircle China, reflecting the evolving geopolitical dynamics and the intensifying competition in the Indo-Pacific.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to the United States, recently, marked a significant development in the broader strategy of encircling China. The visit not only focused on strengthening economic ties but also emphasized military cooperation to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Economically, the United States has been actively investing in India, aiming to promote its growth and create a viable alternative to China’s dominance in the global supply chain. This geopolitical opportunity has allowed India to leverage its position and attract foreign investments, leading to rapid economic growth. However, it is important to acknowledge that India’s growth is not solely attributed to its hard work, but also to the favorable geopolitical circumstances it has seized upon. By capitalizing on these opportunities, India has positioned itself as a key player in reshaping global trade dynamics. Furthermore, the military aspect of the visit highlighted the United States’ commitment to equipping India with advanced technologies and capabilities to effectively counter and encircle China. This strategic partnership aims to enhance India’s defense capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, ultimately ensuring regional stability and balancing China’s expanding influence.
The South China Sea is a crucial region for global trade, with approximately one-third of the world’s trade, valued at $3.4 trillion in 2016, passing through it. China faces the “Malacca dilemma” as 60% of its trade and 80% of its oil imports heavily rely on the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait. However, an alternative and secure trading route for China is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Pakistan. It is essential for Pakistan to navigate this geopolitical environment wisely and create favorable conditions that maximize the potential benefits of the CPEC for both countries.