It seems that Pakistan has made a strategic misstep by skipping the recent National Security Advisors meeting on Afghanistan organized by Moscow. Whatever explanation is being flung by the foreign office; the damage has been done. “Our decision not to participate in the instant meeting was made in light of our consideration that Pakistan can make a better contribution in formats and forums, which can contribute constructively to peace in Afghanistan,” is how foreign ministry spokeswoman Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, at a weekly news conference, explained the reasons for Islamabad avoiding the meeting in Moscow.
First and foremost, Pakistan’s absence from the meeting has cast doubts on its diplomatic professionalism. The Russian Presidential Special Envoy on Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, was under the impression that Pakistan would attend the event after he personally invited it to do so during his visit to Islamabad last month. This suggests that Pakistan either miscommunicated its intentions or deliberately misled Russia, either scenario reflecting poorly on its credibility. At the same time, the decision to skip the meeting has raised questions about the sincerity of its recent rapprochement with Russia. Just a few weeks prior, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari had made progress on comprehensive economic and energy deals with Moscow, only for Pakistan to suddenly pull out of the NSA meeting on Afghanistan. This sudden change in course does not bode well for how its SCO partners might expect its behavior in future group meetings, especially in regard to Afghanistan.
One impression is being fanned that Pakistan has abstained from this meeting under pressure from Washington, which had reservations about Bilawal Bhutto’s recent trip to Moscow. Other argument is that as the country seeks assistance from Washington, especially through US influence over the International Monetary Fund, to address a severe economic crisis, it does not want to upset the US by attending a Moscow-hosted meeting. But this does not hold water if seen against India’s persistent diplomatic and trading engagements with Moscow. The unhindered torrent of cheap Russian oil to India and Modi’s direct - and indirect – communication channels with Putin have not raised any eyebrows in Washington so far, then why would Pakistan be an exception?
If taken on the face value of what Ms. Baloch has said about Pakistan’s stance on the Moscow talks, it reflects that Islamabad’s bilateral disputes with New Delhi are specifically dictating its participation in regional diplomatic interactions on Afghanistan. This certainly leaves a negative dent on our diplomatic efforts to win support or the regional player for our narrative on Afghanistan and may impact Pakistan’s involvement in the future multilateral events. Pakistan’s lack of participation in the meeting has prompted speculation about the true state of its security situation with the Taliban. Pakistan could have benefited from briefing everyone on the situation and highlighting the new wave of the TTP-sponsored terrorism that is disrupting peace in the country. There is no doubt that, in the absence of main stakeholders - the Taliban and Islamabad - any congregation on Afghanistan would not carry much weightage. But, despite such a handicap, Islamabad should have participated in this session to at least muffle the Indians’ aggressive diplomatic offensive to carve a role in the future power equation in Afghanistan.
In the absence of Pakistan, the Indian delegation got a chance to trumpet its old mantra against Pakistan for sponsoring terrorist elements in Afghanistan. India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, was very active during the Moscow talks and he had a special one-on-one meeting with President Putin. Former Indian Ambassador to Russia, Kanwal Sibal, reinforced this point in a tweet where he wrote that “This is very significant. Putin has never met our NSAs before. He does not meet our EAMs either except as far as I know when I organised Natwar Singh to call on him while I was ambassador. Clearly, NSA carried an important message from Modi.” During his meeting with President Putin, Doval again indirectly tried to malign Islamabad by asserting that “no country should be allowed to use Afghanistan’s soil to export terrorism and radicalization.”
President Putin, for sure, must have taken Pakistan’s absence with a pinch of salt and we may soon witness a reverse gear in the bilateral ties between Russia and Pakistan. In a world that is constantly shifting and changing, the geopolitics of South Asia is undergoing a transformation, with far-reaching implications for the region and beyond. The absence of Pakistan from the Moscow consultations, while significant, is just one piece of the larger puzzle of the changing geopolitics of South Asia. India’s quest for a major player in the region, the shifting dynamics between Russia and the United States after the Ukraine war, and the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan all contribute to this evolving landscape. Pakistan’s security concerns stem from the growing attacks by the TTP and its affiliates in Afghanistan. But the policy makers in Islamabad, it seems, are completely clueless and indecisive in this domain.