Since 1947, Pakistan and India have faced multiple obstacles in establishing amicable ties with one another. Such obstacles started, inter alia, with disagreements over the territorial jurisdiction of each nation at the time of separation, which then transitioned into (what Pakistanis believe to be) an unfair division of assets between the two neighbours. The most major issue to grab the headlines, even presently, is the dispute surrounding Kashmir. Pakistan has labelled Kashmir as its ‘jugular vein’, and both countries have always maintained the harshest possible stance on the matter. Another major issue, which seemingly dissipated from the forefront over the past 50 years, was related to water and the hydropower related thereto.
This issue is related to the water resources of both Pakistan and India. By virtue of the fact that Pakistan and India share the river Indus and its tributaries, there arose multiple issues with regards to water management. As both countries are agro-based economies, the Indus River supplies water to multiple agricultural farms located within its vicinity, which contribute towards the economies of their respective nations. Therefore, this became a major bone of contention between the two nations and was used on multiple occasions to stifle the other’s agricultural output as well as their economy. This led to the signing of the Indus Water Treaty. The Indus Waters Treaty is a bilateral agreement between India and Pakistan signed in 1960, which governs the distribution and management of the Indus River and its tributaries. This treaty, brokered by the World Bank, remained one of the most effective and robust water agreements in the world and has remained, for the most part, largely unaffected by the constant political tensions (or border skirmishes) between the two countries.
Pakistan holds a central role in the Indus Waters Treaty as the lower riparian state, located downstream from India, and therefore heavily reliant on the Indus River and its five main tributaries–Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. These waterways play a vital role in the economic and social development of Pakistan, supplying water for irrigation, hydropower, as well as for domestic and industrial purposes. The Indus Water Treaty establishes a comprehensive framework for the sharing of the Indus waters between the two countries, with India retaining control over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) for the purposes of, inter alia, hydropower generation and storage, while Pakistan retains exclusive rights over the western rivers (Jhelum and Chenab). In the finer points of the treaty, there is a dispute resolution mechanism, which entails that all technical disputes shall be resolved through the appointment of a neutral expert, along with a Commission, hosting representatives from both countries, to ensure effective implementation of the treaty and resolution of any other disputes.
Since its inception, the Indus Waters Treaty has faced several challenges and disputes, primarily due to differences in the interpretation of certain provisions and the changing water needs of both countries. However, the treaty has, for the better part of 50 years, withstood the test of time and proven to be flexible enough to accommodate such changes, and the Commission has successfully resolved most disputes through negotiations. In recent times, one of the most major disputes relating to the Indus Water Treaty, has been the construction of large dams and hydropower projects on the eastern rivers by India, which has been vehemently opposed by Pakistan. Pakistan is of the opinion that India violates the treaty provisions and reduces the flow of water to its territories. However, India has maintained that these projects are within the limits of the treaty and are necessary for its own economic development.
Despite these challenges, the Indus Waters Treaty has continued to play a critical role in promoting cooperation and stability between India and Pakistan. It has provided a platform for dialogue and cooperation on water-related issues and has helped to mitigate the risk of water conflicts between the two countries. The treaty has also had a positive impact on the economic development of both countries, particularly Pakistan, by providing a reliable source of water for irrigation and hydropower generation. As a result, the Indus Waters Treaty has been one of the most successful and enduring water agreements in the world and has played a critical role in promoting cooperation and stability between India and Pakistan.
However, most recently, disputes relating to the Indus Water Treaty are threatening to reach an unprecedented high. Pakistan holds the opinion that with the power projects in the works for India, the flows of the shall be severely impacted, leading to catastrophic eventualities for its irrigated agriculture. In this regard, Pakistan has approached the Court of Arbitration to settle this dispute, while the same has been boycotted by their Indian counterparts. Concurrently, India has requested Pakistan (through notices exchanged over diplomatic channels) to agree to amend the Indus Water Treaty. India proposes to bar any third-party from intervening in disputes relating to the Treaty and any disputes resulting therefrom.
On the other hand, Pakistan believes that such matters should be placed before the Court of Arbitration and resolved accordingly (with the representation of both nations), in order to ensure transparency and justice for all those concerned. There is a fear that without the intervention of an unbiased third party for dispute resolution, Pakistan risks being bulldozed in negotiations. It is worthy to note, Pakistan’s reliance on this treaty stretches far beyond the supply of water in their rivers, as it is directly linked to our economic standing, which is in dire straits as it stands. The World Bank has allowed for two separate proceedings to resolve this long-standing dispute in order to prevent an impasse between the two nations, which shall be detrimental to the Treaty itself.
To this end, the questions which arise are: Will the Indus Water Treaty be renegotiated? Can the Court of Arbitration enforce its law on India despite their decision to boycott? Can the Indus Water Treaty remain effective in the coming times? Without running streams of water, how will Pakistan (an agro-based economy) meet its agricultural demands to support its economy? As of now, we are all mere spectators in this dispute waiting to see where the dust settles in this historic dispute between Pakistan and India, with only one hope; to avoid what will be a cataclysmic blow to Pakistan’s brittle economy.