May is only two-months away. Clearly, a decision on participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit-2023 in New Delhi needs to be taken now. In doing so, Pakistan may not bring in bilateralism and excuse itself from attending an otherwise important multilateral event. However, this seemingly simple observation needs serious reflection as a simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ might invite unnecessary flak both from within and outside the country. Related pros and cons must be assessed to reach at a comparatively less risky reply to PM Modi’s invite as, under the prevailing hostile bilateral environment, the chances of a win-win situation are non-existent.
The SCO is governed by the Heads of State Council (HSC), its supreme decision-making body, which meets once a year to reflect on political, economic, security and defence related matters. As such, bilateral issues are excluded from discussions. Therefore, those who argue on Pakistan not attending the SCO-India-hosted-Summit have a point. Since bilateral issues are not to be raised, Islamabad’s absence would not adversely affect its matters of national interest. Secondly, Pakistan has a chance to diplomatically embarrass India by not attending an important event. If the ‘enemy’ is hosting the event, why follow suit and let it keep its tail high? Thirdly, New Delhi’s illegal and defiant actions on the occupied Jammu & Kashmir and maintaining complete silence over Islamabad’s reconciliatory gestures, are reasons enough to follow the tit-for-tat policy. After all, Pakistan, being a nuclear State, has to maintain its dignity and ghairat.
The argument for not participating, continues. Our reservations on India’s hosting the upcoming G-20 meeting would be strengthened if Pakistan remained absent from the SCO Summit. The world must realize the serious differences that exist between India and Pakistan. Furthermore, if our PM is not invited and we attend the Summit at FM-level, how awkward would the optics be? Imagine, a young Bilawal sitting in the company of giants like Putin, Xi Jinping and Modi? Would these stalwarts even care looking at him let alone acknowledge his presence or involving him in any substantive discussion? How embarrassing for Pakistan…!!
To begin with, not attending the Summit would neither melt the ice between the two countries nor would it address Kashmir or resolve the issue of terrorism or act as a stepping stone for normalizing bilateral relations. Hence, the matter of participation needs to be seen only from the diplomatic point of view and the related optics. One important point. Pakistan must not rely on China alone to safeguard its interests in multilateral events. Remember, China did not invite Pakistan to participate in the High-Level Dialogue on Global Development (HLDGD), an event hosted by President Xi Jinping in June last year? Hence, it is advisable that Pakistan is present in the SCO Summit to at least clarify a point or two if not play a significant role in changing the text of the Summit Declaration.
No need to create a scene on not inviting PM Sharif. As the host, India should have extended invitation to the Summit-level dignitary. In inviting the Foreign Minister instead, with a tongue in cheek, India has tried to complicate matters, in fact, provided an opportunity for Pakistan to decline the invitation. In all likelihood, Moscow and Beijing would have been taken on board. Therefore, approaching the SCO Secretariat for receiving an appropriate invite or waiting for another letter of invitation from New Delhi, as a first step, Pakistan may accept the invitation without mentioning the level of participation. Our Foreign Office is skillful enough to come up with an efficient Note Verbale containing all the requisite nuances.
Emotions have no place in International affairs. More often than not, an emotionally driven decision backfires or proves counterproductive. Attending the event will make Pakistan look mature and wise in its outlook. It would also provide Pakistan an opportunity to outsmart India diplomatically. Non-attendance would provide India with a handle to portray its adversary as an immature multilateral partner. It will also provide India a welcome space for its future (mis)adventures. An example...!! Pakistan’s decision on not attending the Summit for Democracies, hosted by President Biden in Dec 2021, was driven by the prevailing anti-US sentiments in the PM house at that time. Details aside, by no means was this decision based on rationality or diplomatic norms. Whether or not Pakistan gained any political or diplomatic mileage from its conspicuous absence from an important multilateral event, is anybody’s guess.
Let’s be realistic. The SCO is neither SAARC nor is it cricket. It is the world’s largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population. With China, Russia, India, Pakistan and four Central Asian States, the SCO covers approximately 60 percent of the area of Eurasia, 40 percent of the world population, and more than 30 percent of global GDP. Customarily, if any Head cannot attend the Summit for whatever reasons, his Foreign Minister usually represent the country.
Pakistan and India obtained full membership of SCO in June 2017. One doesn’t recall if that was the best of times for Pak-India relations. One also doesn’t recall any moment when Pakistan declared to not attend an SCO Summit that would be hosted by India. The idea should be to limit damage instead of adding another provocative talking point in the ‘updated’ briefs of both countries or making the SCO attendance register look a little strange. Diplomacy must be given a chance...!!
To conclude, history may be kept as a reference point. However, ground realities particularly one’s own political and economic disposition should be accorded due importance in formulating policies for the present and the foreseeable future. All said and done, Pakistan should attend the SCO Summit and may also seek a bilateral meeting with India on the Summit’s sidelines. Even if the request is denied, morally, Pakistan would have an upper hand. If such a meeting is held, one could hope for a possible détente between the two countries. Hence, conventional wisdom aside, eyes must be wide open to encompass the ramifications of one’s actions and reactions.