India’s strong economy readily supports the BJP government’s frantic undertakings to enhance its military prowess. The intention is to deter China and Pakistan and remain relevant and inevitable to the larger Sino-U.S. confrontation in the Indo-Pacific region. It is feverishly seeking the latest military technologies in the conventional and nuclear dimensions too. A more than obliging West is willingly providing the sought-after advanced weapon systems and the transfer of military technologies. India’s military capacities and capabilities are thus clearly on the rise. Its military is undergoing a potential transformation into a relatively modern, much more dynamic, hi-tech and potent fighting machine.

Pakistan’s economy, on the other hand, is in the doldrums with scant chances of a quick, strong, and vibrant recovery. It will struggle to fund any massive expansions in its Armed Forces, induct new, modern advanced weapon systems and/or the latest military technologies, carry out cutting-edge research thereof or effectively modernize the existing weapon systems it is holding. Pakistan does not need to match India’s weapon system for weapon system or get into an unaffordable arms race either. Pakistan is wary of the rising numerical and technological superiority in conventional forces that India holds and threatens to expand further.

Pakistan’s options, within the current resource constraints, are grossly limited. However, maintaining an effective full-spectrum deterrence and a viable strategic balance with India has become exceedingly more critical, cardinal, and key to Pakistan’s survival as a sovereign, independent, self-respecting country. Could maintaining the strategic balance acquire different strategic connotations altogether? The emerging strategic environment in the South Asian region compels Pakistan to start relying on the efficacy and deterrent powers of its strategic/nuclear forces even more. This subtle paradigm shift is becoming absolutely inevitable as India continues to enhance its military capacities. Is there a case for Pakistan’s nuclear strategy then to become the more dominant one vis-a-vis the land, air, and maritime strategies? Could Pakistan start banking on its nuclear assets as the primary instrument of maintaining the strategic balance? A reliance on both, nuclear and conventional forces, with more emphasis on the former, might be more practical and doable without too many financial issues involved. Nevertheless, the quantum and quality of deterrence need to be upped to match the escalating threat perceptions. Rolling over and dying has never been an option for Pakistan.

Therefore, Pakistan must keep pace with India’s nuclear weapons programme or better still, stay a step or two ahead. In practical terms, the larger the differential in the conventional forces of the two antagonists, the more will Pakistan inevitably rely upon its strategic/nuclear resources; the lower its nuclear thresholds thus sink and the earlier in battle, (time and space factors coming into play) will it be constrained to resort to its strategic/nuclear assets. This will translate into the war ratcheting speedily up the nuclear escalation ladder and seriously aggravating the potential after-effects of such a potential war. This will be the natural outcome if the strategic balance between India and Pakistan gets skewed to an extent that threatens Pakistan’s existence. Pakistan’s absolute reliance on its strategic assets is thus directly proportional to the differential in the conventional forces of India and Pakistan.

This then brings into even more strident focus the inevitability of a full spectrum deterrence capability for Pakistan. It also highlights the need for a viable, effective, and potent nuclear triad (especially submarine- borne nuclear missiles) and an assured second-strike capability. This then brings out the vital importance and inevitability of Pakistan’s nuclear assets for its security, sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity. The nuclear assets thus emerge, as one is wont to call them, the “Equalisers”- they portend to even out/equalize the odds for Pakistan. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s Armed Forces must undertake other steps too to mitigate the emerging disadvantage that they might face. Within the given constraints they must continue efforts to acquire/develop the necessary military technologies. China and Turkey are proven good partners in this respect. We have a very strong, dynamic, technically qualified youth who can be suitably employed for such purposes as well. A national policy to that end might be necessary. The Armed Forces could also go in for force multipliers. The quality of manpower inductions in the Armed Forces must improve drastically. Gradually, the majority of inductions at the officer and soldier levels must be science students. All academies, schools of instruction, staff, and war colleges must (re)introduce military and general science subjects which should be an integral part of the promotion/entrance examinations too.

So, in the final analysis, if the nature of the threat keeps escalating then Pakistan’s response to it must also evolve correspondingly. The quantum and quality of the threat must be met fully and more by Pakistan’s countermeasures. Pakistan must resort to all possible means to make its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence absolutely unimpeachable Period.

Imran Malik

The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@ gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.